This week’s TOUR Championship will conclude the road to East Lake. 29 players (minus Will Zalatoris due to a back injury) will be competing for a huge bonus payout. Nine players will make their first TOUR Championship debut. Just qualifying is an incredible achievement. Scottie Scheffler’s strong work in 2022 (four wins including the Masters) gives him an advantage this week at East Lake. However, the FedExCup is still far from settled. Take a look at the 18-hole lead on TOUR in the past 15 seasons to see how fast a lead can disappear on the PGA TOUR. Only 14 percent of those who were leading by more than two shots at the end of the first round won. Only three of the 10 players with a lead of at least four shots after round one in 2007 went on to win. Twenty First Group ran 10,000 simulations in Atlanta to determine the probability of any outcome. Eight players stand a chance of winning the entire tournament. Sam Burns Start strokes: -5 FedExCup victory probability: 4.1%. When Burns defeated world No. He defeated world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler at the Charles Schwab Challenge in May. It was his third win in 2021-22 season, and moved him up to second in FedExCup. Since the U.S. Open started on June 15, Burns has cooled down and now ranks 31st among Strokes Gained: All. Burns has been coming off two back-to-back top-20 finishes. He currently holds a 68.2 average scoring score in his nine rounds. Stat of the Season: Cameron Smith and Burns are the only players in the top 15 in Strokes gained: Approach and Strokes gained: Putting. Tony Finau Opening strokes: -4 FedExCup Win Probability: 4.1%. His first-round 77 at BMW Championship was an accidental smudge on a flawless mural. Finau has scored a score average of 67.6 in his 19 TOUR rounds and has failed to break par only once, that being the ugly Thursday 77 at BMW. Finau still has a lot of work ahead of him in Atlanta. However, he managed to gain more than three strokes Tee-to Green in the last round, which is a good sign for East Lake. Stat of the Season: Finau ranks 5th in 2021-22 after finishing 66th on TOUR for greens in regulation percentage. Jon Rahm Start strokes: -3 FedExCup win probability: 4.3% Nine players have multiple wins on TOUR this season. Surprisingly Rahm isn’t one of them. His only victory was at the Mexico Open at Vidanta this spring. Rahm hasn’t played poorly (he’s third on TOUR In Strokes Gained Total), but his standards are high. He fell to sixth in the Official World Golf Ranking earlier in the month, snapping a streak that had lasted 138 weeks. Rahm may have a chance this week. He was at 10 under and had no bogeys at the BMW Championship. Stat of the Season: Rahm averages 10.4 yards further off the tee in measured drives this year than last. He is the TOUR’s leader in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee. Cameron Smith Start strokes: -4 FedExCup win chance: 4.5% Smith’s health is his biggest concern, since he missed the BMW due to a hip injury. His game is in great shape and his approach play has improved to the point that it rivals his ability on the greens. Smith’s Strokes Gained Approach ranking has risen by 50 places this season, moving from 53rd place to 3rd. After being outside the top 100 in birdie average three years ago, Smith is now the TOUR’s leader in birdie percentage. Stat of the Season: Smith is second to win both THE PLAYERS AND The Open simultaneously. It was done by Jack Nicklaus in 1978. Rory McIlroy Start strokes: -4 FedExCup Win Probability: 7.6% Adam Scott, the only player in this field, has more East Lake starts than Rory McIlroy (this will his ninth). McIlroy started six shots behind Scheffler. Twenty First Group gives McIlroy a chance of winning the FedExCup all week. This would make him the first man in history to win it three times. McIlroy is the leader in birdie average among players who have played East Lake for 10 or more rounds over the past decade (4.82). Stat of the Season: McIlroy had 53.6 Strokes Gone: Total in the four majors. This was the highest total season win by a player in a season since Ernie Els’ 2006 (60.2). Xander Schauffele Start strokes: -6 FedExCup victory probability: 8.4%. Xander Schauffele putted on Sunday at the BMW Championship, which would have reshaped the week’s championship. Schauffele would have been alone in third place if he had putt his birdie on 18 and Scottie Scheffler would have finished fourth. This difference would have placed Patrick Cantlay in this week’s top spot, instead of Scheffler. This was just the latest example of how close this season-long race could be. Schauffele has never shot above par in 20 career TOUR Championship rounds. His career scoring average is 67.3, which is the highest among all players in the past decade. Stat of the Season: Schauffele has never shot above par in the final round at a TOUR event this season. He hasn’t shot over par since September 2020. Patrick Cantlay Start strokes: -8 FedExCup victory probability: 20.1% Cantlay is the first FedExCup Playoffs player to successfully defend a title at a BMW event. To defend his TOUR Championship title, Cantlay will be the first player to win the FedExCup twice in consecutive seasons. He has a better chance than one in five of winning it. Cantlay finished within the top 15 in seven of his eight starts since the PGA Championship. He ranks 16th on Strokes Gained Ball Striking, 9th on Strokes Gained Putting, and 4th overall in Strokes Gained Total. Stat of the Season: Cantlay was 64th in TOUR’s putting within 10 feet. He is 3rd in 2021-22. Scottie Scheffler Start strokes: -10 FedExCup win chance: 29.1%. Since 1990, the PGA TOUR Player of the Year award is given. Scheffler could be the winner this week in Georgia, as he has never been winless to begin a season. Scheffler was just making his debut as the world’s No. 1 player when the best of the world gathered in Georgia. 1. We all know the outcome. Scheffler’s meteoric rise has been attributed to his approach play. It went from being good to exceptional in 2022. Scheffler rose from 83rd in TOUR Strokes Gained : Approach last year to 4th this season, an increase of around +2.73 strokes for 72 holes in that discipline. Scheffler was ranked world No. He won his first career victory on the PGA or DP World Tours 42 days later, making it the fastest climb to the top. Tiger Woods set the previous record in 1997 with 252 days.
By: Justin Ray, Twenty First Group
Title: FedExCup win probabilities for the top players at the TOUR Championship
Sourced From: www.pgatour.com/statsreport/2022/08/23/breaking-down-importance-of-first-round-leads-on-pga-tour.html
Published Date: Tue, 23 Aug 2022 12:30:00 -0400
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