The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has an unusual phenomenon. It’s not due to the strong winds that force the tournament to finish on Monday. The Pebble Beach Pro-Am has been running for three days, with the third interrupted by strong winds that battered the Monterey Peninsula. After the first round, Hank Lebioda was at the top of the leaderboard, followed by Kurt Kitayama in Round 2. Now, Peter Malnati is at the top of the leaderboard. He will be returning Sunday to play the final six holes of his third round and will have a two shot cushion. The oddsmakers listed Keith Mitchell as the overnight betting favorite despite him not having slept on a lead for three consecutive days. This is a testament of all the variables that are in play this week, including a three-course rotation and credit to Mitchell for his 5-under 67 at Spyglass Hill, which is the most difficult track. There are still eight holes in his third round at the course host, but BetMGM continues to believe that he will win the TOUR. This week, he is at the California coast. Updated odds of winning via BetMGM. Round 3 play will resume at 11 AM. ET Sunday): +350. Keith Mitchell +400. Viktor Hovland+700. Joseph Bramlett+800. Kurt Kitayama+1800. Justin Rose +1800. Beau Hossler+2500. Hank Lebioda +13.000: Denny McCarthy. It’s difficult to see a situation that has more variables. There are varying holes remaining in the third round for players, each being played at different courses. Some players will play a 20-some hole round at Pebble Beach while others will finish their rounds elsewhere, and then quickly shuttle back to Pebble Beach to start the final round. All indications point to the tournament champion not lifting the trophy before Monday morning. If you are aware of the most important variables, it is possible to raise prices by adding a few more variables. Let’s get to it… Draws Peter Malnati. Malnati was able to take a big break when tournament officials made the decision (understandably) that play would be halted due to strong winds. The veteran was looking at a very exposed section of Pebble Beach, in wild winds, for a short time Saturday afternoon. Conditions should be much easier Sunday morning. Malnati will open with an 18-footer on fresh greens for birdie, which could extend his lead to three shots. Malnati is a risky prospect. He opened the week with lofty +20000 odds, and was +6600 after two rounds. Saturday’s performance at Pebble Beach was a great example of this. This is the course and event where Malnati’s targeted game can flourish, even when it gets windy. He’s not guaranteed to win, but he isn’t a bad bet. His chances of winning were greatly increased when he was asked to face Nos. After a light breakfast on Sunday, he will play at Pebble from 4-9. Brandon Wu The former Stanford student is four shots behind and +4000 with 23 to play. Wu enjoys the logistical advantage that he can play all of his remaining round at the host course. However, he will face a challenging stretch in the morning (Nos. 5-9), his chances of making it to the final round are a fraction lower if he can make a few birdies on those holes. Wu will most likely be chasing Sunday (and possibly Monday), but he did hit 17 of 18 GIR Friday on Monterey Peninsula, and tallied four birdies in his first eight Saturdays at Pebble. His momentum was halted by a late double bogey that inflated his in-play cost. However, the game is there for him to win against a leaderboard without a clear front-runner. Fades Keith Mitchell Perhaps the oddsmakers are smarter than I. It is possible, but not impossible. It’s possible, but I don’t see Mitchell as the best player from this leaderboard. Mitchell has won on TOUR before, which is a rare distinction amongst the leaders at this stage and could be a factor that is reducing the odds for both of them. Mitchell, however, was quite a scrambler Saturday at Pebble. He recorded one-putts for eight of his nine first greens. This is partly due to the low targets at Pebble, but also because Mitchell relied heavily on his short game in order to stay in the mix. It’s hard to trust in him indefinitely, especially in a situation when he is favored but not leading. Although I could see Mitchell winning the trophy, I don’t think I would be willing to back him in such a short time. Beau Hossler Hossler, who was listed at +20000 going to the toughest of the three courses, was completely off-the-radar at the halfway point. Spyglass Hill was his home course, and he did not disappoint, putting in birdies on seven holes. This helped him rocket to the top of the standings. Malnati may not have noticed the difference, but the action on Saturday at Spyglass Hill may have helped cool his heater. He was able to take off a lot of steam with a double bogey on No. 6 was his final hole completed for the day. Hossler’s rally was remarkable. He took a zero off his odds and dropped to +2000. He’s still trying to win his maiden TOUR victory, which is usually difficult to find at this event. And unlike the three top leaders, he will deal with logistical challenges by splitting his Sunday between two golf courses. He still has a four shot deficit and a few final holes at Spyglass, before returning to the course where he shot an indifferent, even-par 72. *Sourced from BetMGM at 7:05 p.m. ET Saturday Responsible sports betting begins with a plan. Establish a budget. It should be social. Play with your friends. Learn the game and the odds. Trusted, licensed operators are the best. Click HERE to find out more about HaveAGamePlan.org
By: Will Gray
Title: Peter Malnati leads, but odds continue to favor Keith Mitchell at AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Sourced From: www.pgatour.com/betting-dfs/2023/02/04/peter-malnati-leads–but-odds-continue-to-favor-keith-mitchell-at-att-pebble-beach-pro-am.html
Published Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2023 19:30:00 -0500
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