After four days of hard work, we now have a clear leader in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The format, which already featured a three-course rotation, was further complicated by Saturday’s weather delay. This means that the final round will be played on Monday morning at the Monterey Peninsula. After the first three days, there were three different leaders, but Keith Mitchell was the overnight betting favorite, despite not being among the players that slept on top. The tournament leader and betting favourite have now converged and all those who return to Pebble Beach Golf Links Monday are all following Justin Rose. Since the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open, when he was ranked No.1, the Englishman has not won on the PGA TOUR. The world’s No. 1. He started this week ranked at 71st. He has had a few good breaks this week including an Ace during his round at Spyglass Hill. Sunday’s lead was his thanks to a 20-minute stretch which included an Eagle on No. 6, and a birdie at No. 7. Rose was priced at +2100 as the sun rose on Sunday. A long, productive day reduced Rose’s odds of winning to -175. This made it clear that Rose is still in control. With nine holes remaining, Rose has two more to play. Updated odds via BetMGM (Round 4, to resume Monday morning). -175: Justin Rose +400; Brendon Todd +900; Peter Malnati +1000. Denny McCarthy +800: Keith Mitchell +2000. Beau Hossler will be the last group to return to No. The final group will return to No. 10 at the beginning, with others having fewer holes. Let’s look at the arguments for and against those who still have a chance to win: Justin Rose (-15 through nine holes): For: Justin Rose is playing as a former major champion, world No. 1. Rose has had a rough period over the last few months but it’s clear that he is a winner – even at Pebble, a track of major-caliber. It takes a lot of planning and a different approach. Rose broke away from the crowded leaderboard by playing birdie-eagle and can now play defense over the last nine holes to see who is able apply pressure. He now has a two shot cushion. Against: Take a look at the way the standings have changed this weekend to see how quickly two shots can disappear. Rose has had a few breaks which is sometimes what you need. However, Rose may not have liked to see play stop because of the gusty winds Saturday night. He would prefer to play until midnight Sunday. It’s unclear if he can maintain his momentum on a new day. Brendon Todd (-13 through twelve holes) For: Todd’s 7’7″ span may be a factor in his ability to charge this event. This is the putt for birdie that he will face on No. He could be within one shot of the lead at 13 in the morning. Todd is a master at target tracks and has won in Bermuda, Mayakoba and Pebble. He could start the day by starting with a circle and post a number to see if Rose fails. Against: He is running out of holes. Even if he makes the birdie on No. 13-year-old Todd will have only five more birdie chances in what could be chilly conditions. Rose will not have the same birdie opportunities as Rose, but Rose could use the extra distance to his advantage, given the pressure on the others. Peter Malnati (-13 through 9 holes) For: Malnati shot one of the best shots in the tournament on No. 1 Sunday: Malnati escaped from the trees to make a double bogey a possible birdie. He’s already near the green on No. Rose chose to delay his approach shot until morning, while Malnati is already up near the green on No. 10. Malnati has house money and is able to play a few more holes while Rose plays alongside him to keep Rose in the hunt. For: Malnati’s momentum may already have crested. He seemed to be making the most of the windy conditions Saturday and was hanging on Sunday evening for dear life along Pebble’s coast stretch. He is unlikely to birdie No. He’s unlikely to birdie No. 10. Denny McCarthy (-13 through the 15 holes) For: McCarthy played better on Sunday. He started the day as a +15000 longshot and went out in 29. He birdied eight of the first 11 holes to share the lead. He’s long been known for being one of the TOUR’s top putters and will be facing a 15-footer on No. 16 on fresh greens this morning. Add another one on the home hole, and roll that in. McCarthy is only one hole away from being out of the woods, even more than Todd. The leaders might be able to take a look at McCarthy’s closing with two birdies in his three last holes. McCarthy might have to use a wind tunnel to change the conditions to ensure that those with 4-6 more holes behind him don’t get to match his score. Keith Mitchell (-12 to 10 holes): For: A short birdie chip at No. He’ll be able to play some more holes and try to catch Rose. He’ll need to play more this week because his short game has been exceptional. For: Mitchell was the overnight favorite for the final three days but couldn’t get his game in gear Sunday afternoon. Mitchell failed to convert several viable birdie chances starting at Nos. He was unable to convert 3-7 birdies while he fell off the pace. Now he will have to press. *Sourced from BetMGM at 9:59 p.m. ET Sunday Responsible sports betting begins with a plan. Establish a budget. It should be social. Play with your friends. Learn the game and the odds. Trusted, licensed operators are the best. Click HERE to find out more about HaveAGamePlan.org
By: Will Gray
Title: Make your case: Can anyone catch Justin Rose at Pebble Beach?
Sourced From: www.pgatour.com/draws-and-fades/2023/02/05/golf-betting-make-your-case–can-anyone-catch-justin-rose-at-pebble-beach.html
Published Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2023 21:25:00 -0500
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